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Presidential Elections,” Working paper, Available at: “Combining forecasts: An application to U.S. Armstrong, Principles of Forecasting, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, pp. To get some idea as to which forecasting techniques might be relevant to your situation, go to the forecasting selection tree at .Īrmstrong (2001). She would beat you most of the time.īut why stop there? This is a relatively inexpensive procedure that can improve forecasts in any organization. Forecasting is obviously an uncertain business, but I would not advise that you bet against Polly. This year, Polly has been in contact with Alfred Cuzán, Professor of Political Science at the University of West Florida, about forecasts for the outcome of the midterm elections for both the U.S. Those who used Polly in each of those elections would have made money on the betting markets. At no time during either year-Polly’s forecasts began at six to 12 months before Election Day-did Polly’s forecast show either eventual winner losing the election. Polly made her first appearance in 2004, when she delivered a near-perfect prediction of the percent of the two-party vote that President Bush won against Senator Kerry. Four years later, she repeated this in the Obama-McCain contest. MIDTERM ELECTIONS PREDICTIONS SERIESIn a series of experiments with highly qualified MBA students, a majority of participants thought that the average of estimates would reflect only average performance ( Larrick & Soll 2006). What’s not to like about combining? Interestingly, people often lack the intuition to understand the benefits of combining. Under such favorable conditions, combining reduces forecasts errors almost by half ( Graefe et al., 2010). So the key is to use methods and data that differ substantially so as to bracket the true value. The answer is the error of the second forecast would need to be bigger than the error of the first forecast if the error was in the same direction (sign) but more than three times the error of the first forecast if the error had the opposite sign. Imagine, for instance, that you have two forecasts of a quantity: How big would the error of the second forecast need to be in order for the error of the average of the two forecasts to be larger than the error of the first forecast alone? Combining forecasts is especially useful if the forecaster wants to avoid large errors, and if there is uncertainty about which method will be most accurate. In addition, the combined forecasts were often more accurate than the most accurate component. The reductions of forecast error ranged from 3 to 24 percent. A meta-analysis of 30 studies estimated that the combined forecasts yielded a 12 percent reduction in error compared to the average error of the components. 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